Is the PE bubble about to burst?


When High Leverage Plays Fail

Hey there entrepreneurs,

Welcome to the Better Business Brief, where I share takeaways from:

  • running businesses I’m building to sell for millions
  • My advisory with other business owners building to sell for millions
  • tips and tricks you can use to do the same


Private equity has been on a tear for decades.

In the 80s and 90s, PE firms were pulling 30–40% returns.

These days? Not so consistent.

And now, a lot of people are starting to ask: is the bubble about to burst?

After digging into this on a recent episode of my show Deal Flow Live, here’s what I think business owners and aspiring acquirers should be paying attention to…

So today, in less than 5 minutes, I’ll give you:

💸 The problem with debt-fueled deals

🏗️ Why building long-term beats financial engineering

🗝️ How to protect yourself as a buyer or owner

Here’s the big picture:

Private equity has gotten addicted to fast flips and high leverage.

It worked when markets were hot and buyers were paying crazy multiples.

But when that slows down, a lot of firms are left holding companies they never wanted to actually run.

That’s where things start to crack.

Debt-Loaded PE Plays Aren’t Working the Same

For years, the model was simple:

load a business with debt, squeeze out short-term cash flow, package a few together, and sell them for a premium multiple.


The problem?

Multiples have cooled.

Buyers aren’t paying 4–5x multiples on mom-and-pop service companies anymore.

And many firms that depend on those quick flips are stuck holding businesses they never planned to operate long-term.


In other words, they made these big, leveraged plays that depended fully on the after market of these businesses…

AKA something they didn’t have control over.

Long-Term Builders Win Anyway

So what actually works?

Maybe there’s a better way.

I’m not saying leveraged buyouts are a bad way to go in the first place…

Just that a lot of firms set out unrealistic expectations.

So what do you do?

Building a company like you’ll hold it for 10 years, or even pass it on to your kids.

That way:

  • You create real cash flow and optionality.
  • You avoid shortcuts that burn reputation.
  • You’re negotiating from strength when a buyer does come knocking.

If you’re not desperate to sell, you hold the leverage.

How to Protect Yourself

Whether you’re raising money, buying a business, or growing your own:

  • Don’t rely on a future sale to hit your numbers.
  • Treat an exit as optional, not required.
  • Don’t create your whole plan based on the NEED to sell in the future.
  • Build systems and operations that make the business turnkey, so it’s attractive to buyers and profitable to hold.

That’s why it really gets a better outcome if you build it like you’ll leave it to your kids.

At the end of the day, the PE bubble might pop for firms chasing short-term gains.

But for those of us building solid, legacy-quality businesses?


We’re setting ourselves up for strong cash flow today and outsized exits tomorrow (if and when it makes sense).

If that resonates with you, and you want to learn how we’re helping owners build businesses that buyers line up for… check out ScaleForSale.com.

If you like these ideas or found this informative, stick around and subscribe. I do this newsletter every week.

If you did, share it with a friend who may too, as this is the best way for me to grow it and make this better.

They can even sign up here :)

Happy value-building to you!

See you next time for Better Business Brief,

-Brody

113 Cherry St #92768, Seattle, WA 98104-2205
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Better Business Brief

I'm the founder of Scale for Sale, a consulting practice that works with businesses who are building to sell. We help them scale their profit until they grow to their desired size. I am building Scale for Sale to sell it for millions and we are helping others do the same. Subscribe for weekly takeaways from this process.

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